ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری صنعت پتروشیمی کشور از پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم و شناسایی ریسک‌ها و فرصت‌های بالقوه

The purpose of this study is to identify and predict possible damages caused by climate change on Iranian petrochemical industry, to identify the influential aspects of climate change, and to explain the most affected industrial activities from climate change, and finally to analyse risks and opportunities. ISO 14091 standard has been used to compile the methodology of this study. The geographical scope of the study included the entire country in 10 meteorological stations (corresponding to the areas with petrochemical industry) and the time frame of the analysis included the next 25 years (2025 to 2050). A total of 12 climate variables have been investigated,18 influential aspects of the petrochemical industry from changes in climatic variables and their consequences (climatic risks) were identified and evaluated based on 12 climatic variables and their changes in different regions of the country (17 trends-regions in total). The results of this study showed that the most significant risks in the petrochemical industry due to climate change are increase in temperature, number of hot days and torrential rains in all regions, relative humidity increase in all regions except Asalouyeh, drought increase in all regions except Asaluyeh and Shiraz, increase in wind speed in all regions except Mahshahr, and increase in water temperature and sea acidity at the coasts of Oman and the Persian Gulf. The most important consequences of these changes include the increase in energy consumption and energy price, depreciation of facilities, increase in operating costs and disturbance in sustainable production, and increase in safety, health and environmental risks. It was also concluded that the most important future opportunities for the petrochemical industry are in the scope of reducing depreciation and damage to equipment in the southern regions of the country (Asaluyeh and Shiraz) and after that, increasing access to energy and feed resources and reducing health and safety risks will be the most important opportunities in all regions of the country.